Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.662926 22.534892 24.612951 27.114151 30.075235 33.511506 37.866213
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.833922 20.265566 23.169698 26.975823 31.967342 38.507710 48.148765
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.850196 18.537168 21.919663 26.650159 33.395155 43.241764 60.117590
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.410749 17.221615 20.905716 26.333175 34.640615 48.027545 74.794819
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.329321 16.205097 20.099204 26.091717 35.854267 53.121174 93.758952
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.486127 15.397914 19.450527 25.927483 37.092444 58.700387 119.480018
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.677058 14.550867 18.632550 25.345559 37.442016 62.674665 146.646186
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.393984 14.410066 18.820751 26.388683 40.988463 75.453358 235.294705
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.854539 13.848310 18.303272 26.147746 41.952465 82.562249 332.917462
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.448946 13.449921 17.996134 26.221230 43.588700 92.793977 556.332531
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.117594 13.136095 17.789429 26.438898 45.607492 106.131444 1261.932635
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.793216 12.809096 17.529013 26.513170 47.317900 120.371970 6254.962288
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.422953 12.394457 17.099145 26.221986 48.106650 132.321015 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.135206 12.092175 16.835504 26.230753 49.724451 151.252448 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.829571 11.744537 16.468021 25.981042 50.577674 168.161428 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.544319 11.414506 16.107803 25.703879 51.296902 186.609432 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.289548 11.120738 15.791275 25.483650 52.151877 209.412854 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.063223 10.862082 15.519881 25.330896 53.202844 238.844274 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.795450 10.524329 15.086721 24.773352 52.773266 252.949923 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.757189 10.560385 15.331001 25.777623 58.151712 379.405975 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.559847 10.323446 15.057779 25.546429 58.945901 445.045831 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.412016 10.163044 14.917474 25.617287 60.989515 582.359460 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.289072 10.039100 14.837782 25.826647 63.739193 850.756992 NaN